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14

Bear Right

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 64

Naas · Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still a maiden but had first-time cheekpieces on and made the frame once more without being seen to very best effect when third of 14 at Leopardstown (7f, good) 18 days ago, left with a lot to do having lost her position down the inside. Big chance reunited with Shane Foley.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 29/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f Yie 12829/07C8C8 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 7f Goo 123C8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 1282/09C8BHA70 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 138 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 70 parBHA67 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m Sft 128 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 67 par3/0567OR 67BHA64 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 64 · 1m Sft 134 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m Gd 134 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 63 par14/0663OR 63BHA61 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 61 parBHA64 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 64 · 7f50y Goo 127 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 64 par16/0764OR 64projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA643rd3rd0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA613rd3rd0
2026-06-14CorkBHA634th4th0
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA643rd3rd0
2026-05-03CorkBHA677th7th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA670

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0718/0914/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength92%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20255th33/10%43%+0.43
24/08/202511th16/116%29%+0.13
02/09/20256th66/10%44%+0.44
18/09/20256th12/137%67%+0.30
03/05/20267th12/137%14%-0.23
04/06/20263rd8/158%83%+0.25
14/06/20264th13/266%73%+0.07
01/07/20263rd10/147%88%+0.41
16/07/20263rd5/287%85%-0.02