3
Chester Nimitz
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 67
Naas · Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA70 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA73 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA77 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Navan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Down Royal | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 16/07/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 29/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 29/09/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 23% | -0.35 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 08/07/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 21% | -0.26 |