8
Darkdeserthighway
8yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 62
Naas · Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | BHA66 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Dundalk | BHA72 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Dundalk | BHA73 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Dundalk | BHA74 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Dundalk | BHA74 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 05/11/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 03/07/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |