IvyArcIvyArc
16

Frosted Sky

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 61

Naas · Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap · 7f

#17

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been brought along steadily, a patiently-ridden sixth of 13 in maiden at Cork (5f) just over 7 weeks ago. Appeals as a likely improver now stepping up in trip on her handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 23/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f Std 12923/04C8C8 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR - · 6f63y Goo 1293/06C8C8 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 5f Gd 12914/06C8projClass-projected finish: 13th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-14Cork?6th6th0
2026-06-03Curragh?8th8th0
2026-04-23Dundalk?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/043/0614/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20268th22/10%13%+0.13
03/06/20268th80/10%59%+0.59
14/06/20266th33/10%58%+0.58