IvyArcIvyArc
11

Irish Rumour

6yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 61

Naas · Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap · 7f

#16

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On long losing run and failed to justify support having held every chance when fifth of 15 at Navan (6f, good to firm) just over 3 weeks ago. Back up to 7f but easy to look elsewhere for win purposes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA65 @ Naas 23/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 65 · 5f205y Yie 125 · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 65 par23/0765OR 65BHA66 @ Curragh 16/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 66 · 6f Gd 136 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 66 parBHA63 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 63 · 6f Sft 124 · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 63 par10/0963OR 63BHA62 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 62 · 7f Yie 132 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 62 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 141 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 59 par5/1159OR 59BHA61 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f94y Goo 131 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 61 parBHA58 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 58 · 6f63y Yie 128 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 58 par3/0658OR 58BHA64 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 64 · 7f45y Goo 134 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 62 · 5f180y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 62 par11/0762OR 62projClass-projected finish: 10th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11NavanBHA625th5th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA6413th13th0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA582nd2nd0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA6115th15th0
2025-11-05DundalkBHA595th5th0
2025-09-22FairyhouseBHA622nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0722/093/0611/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20253rd8/158%87%+0.29
16/08/20255th15/261%67%+0.06
10/09/20258th7/163%63%0.00
22/09/20252nd20/10%94%+0.94
05/11/20255th6/168%69%+0.01
18/05/202615th12/137%0%-0.37
03/06/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79
18/06/202613th16/116%14%-0.02
11/07/20265th9/276%71%-0.05