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4

Rappell

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66

Naas · Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a drop in grade to open his account for the year in 14-runner event at Limerick (6.7f, good to firm) just over 3 weeks ago, edging ahead final 1f. Tongue tie reapplied and fancied to feature despite a 9 lb higher mark to contend with.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 72 · 6f Std 142 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 72 par28/1172OR 72BHA71 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 71 · 6f Std 131 · below its mark01/04/2026 · OR 71 parBHA70 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 21 · OR 70 · 6f Sft 140 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 70 par19/0470OR 70BHA68 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 68 · 6f Gd 138 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 68 parBHA65 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 65 · 1m Gd 135 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 65 par15/0565OR 65BHA62 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 62 · 6f63y Yie 132 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA59 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 141 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 59 par1/0759OR 59BHA57 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 57 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 57 parBHA57 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 57 · 6f150y Gd 139 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 57 par11/0757OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11LimerickBHA571st1st0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA572nd2nd0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA596th6th0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA6214th14th0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA659th9th0
2026-05-04CurraghBHA6811th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/114/051/0711/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/20256th9/488%62%-0.27
01/04/20269th13/266%27%-0.39
19/04/202610th20/10%55%+0.55
04/05/202611th12/137%47%+0.11
15/05/20269th20/10%43%+0.43
03/06/202614th20/10%32%+0.32
01/07/20266th5/174%69%-0.05
08/07/20262nd6/168%93%+0.24
11/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08