15
Zheleznaya Dama
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 62
Naas · Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA60 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA60 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | BHA61 | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-05 | Down Royal | BHA57 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Gowran Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Gowran Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 16th | 20/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 27/06/2025 | 13th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/07/2025 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 13/08/2025 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 05/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 85% | +0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 69% | +0.32 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |