11
Covert Legend
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 63
Naas · Watch All Racing Live At Matchbook Handicap · 1m 2f 184y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA62 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-04 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-01-28 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2024 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.86 |
| 26/09/2024 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 04/01/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 28/01/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 04/03/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |