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3

Genoah

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77

Naas · Watch All Racing Live At Matchbook Handicap · 1m 2f 184y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time Dundalk winner who is yet to score on turf but has a lower mark to work with and produced a good second of 12 in a handicap at Curragh in June. Shaped as is still in form, rallying late after becoming outpaced, when fifth of 11 at Navan (1¼m, good to firm) 23 days ago. Respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA89 @ Dundalk 21/03/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 89 · 1m2f150y Std 144 · below its mark21/03/2025 · OR 89 par21/0389OR 89BHA89 @ Leopardstown 16/05/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 89 · 1m4f Goo 149 · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 89 parBHA85 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m2f150y Std 145 · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 85 par3/1285OR 85BHA85 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 85 · 1m2f150y Std 125 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 85 parBHA88 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 1m4f Std 140 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 88 par30/0188OR 88BHA80 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 80 · 1m2f Gd 134 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 80 parBHA78 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 24 · OR 78 · 1m6f Gd 128 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 78 par24/0578OR 78BHA77 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 77 · 1m2f GF 137 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 77 parBHA77 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m2f40y Goo 137 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 77 par11/0777OR 77projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11NavanBHA775th5th0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA772nd2nd0
2026-05-24CurraghBHA7810th10th0
2026-05-10LeopardstownBHA809th9th0
2026-01-30DundalkBHA881st1st0
2025-12-19DundalkBHA851st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0319/1224/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/202511th7/282%23%-0.58
16/05/202514th50/10%0%0.00
03/12/20254th28/10%73%+0.73
19/12/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
30/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
10/05/20269th10/147%20%-0.27
24/05/202610th66/10%61%+0.61
27/06/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
11/07/20265th9/488%60%-0.28