IvyArcIvyArc
4

Nakasero

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77

Naas · Watch All Racing Live At Matchbook Handicap · 1m 2f 184y

#3

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Leopardstown last summer. Hit and miss off higher marks since, though, posting best effort this season when runner-up at Dundalk in January. Never threatened on either turf outing this summer but this does at least represent a drop in grade as he goes back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA73 @ Naas 23/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 73 · 7f Yie 127 · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 73 par23/0773OR 73BHA71 @ Leopardstown 21/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 71 · 1m1f Gd 131 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 71 parBHA79 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 119 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 79 par13/0979OR 79BHA79 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 79 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 79 parBHA80 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 80 · 1m2f150y Std 120 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 80 par19/1280OR 80BHA80 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 80 · 1m4f Std 140 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 80 parBHA82 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m4f Std 134 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 82 par30/0182OR 82BHA81 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 81 · 1m4f Gd 141 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 81 parBHA80 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 80 · 1m1f Goo 123 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 80 par9/0780OR 80projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA809th9th0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA818th8th0
2026-01-30DundalkBHA828th8th0
2026-01-09DundalkBHA802nd2nd0
2025-12-19DundalkBHA807th7th0
2025-12-03DundalkBHA792nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/073/1230/019/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength6%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/202510th8/158%10%-0.48
21/08/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
13/09/202516th28/10%0%0.00
03/12/20252nd10/382%91%+0.08
19/12/20257th4/179%40%-0.39
09/01/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
30/01/20268th7/163%0%-0.63
15/05/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
09/07/20269th40/10%20%+0.20