5
Pavilion End
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Naas · Watch All Racing Live At Matchbook Handicap · 1m 2f 184y
#9
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: BHA73
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA73 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA75 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA76 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Dundalk | BHA77 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dundalk | BHA77 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 19/03/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/05/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 01/06/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |