3
Eighteenth Smiles
2yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 70
Naas · Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Sires Series) · 5f 205y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA72 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | ? | 12th | 16th | −4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 31% | +0.05 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |