10
Lily Bear
2yo Filly · 8-11
Naas · Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Sires Series) · 5f 205y
#11
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 12.7 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | ? | 10th | 14th | −4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |