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11

Livenka

2yo Filly · 8-11

Naas · Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Sires Series) · 5f 205y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/6

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed on first 2 starts in maidens (the latter over 7f) and she benefited from the return to a sprint trip when winning a 9-runner maiden at Fairyhouse (6f, good, 5/6) 26 days ago. Leading player on these terms with further improvement likely.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f205y Gd 12827/04C8C8 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f Gd 12828/06C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f Goo 1288/07C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Fairyhouse?1st5th−4
2026-06-28Curragh?3rd7th−4
2026-04-27Naas?3rd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0428/068/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20263rd6/492%60%-0.32
28/06/20263rd5/287%83%-0.04
08/07/20261st5/696%100%+0.04