4
Ranting Duke
2yo Gelding · 9-4
Naas · Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Sires Series) · 5f 205y
#5
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |