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South Dakota

2yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 96

Naas · Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Sires Series) · 5f 205y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/11

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

St Mark's Basilica colt shaped very well under a considerate ride when fourth on debut and took his form up a big notch when filling the same position behind Nola Soul in Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Failed to land the odds when third of 5 in a Killarney minor event (1m) since. Back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f Gd 13123/05C81 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 7f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS18/061C0 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m40y Gd 13415/07C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot14th0th+4
2026-05-23Curragh?4th8th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0518/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20264th8/158%57%-0.01
18/06/20264th10/382%77%-0.06
15/07/20263rd8/1196%50%-0.46