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9

Weekend Roar

2yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 83

Naas · Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Sires Series) · 5f 205y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

£105,000 Supremacy colt who shaped with plenty of promise when third of 11 on debut at Salisbury (6f) before confirming that potential to win a 6-runner novice (11/4) at Newmarket (6f, good) 39 days ago. Very interesting raider from England who should improve again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0634 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS25/064projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-25Newmarket41st0th+1
2026-06-14Salisbury33rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0625/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06
25/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14