Dark Willow
6yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 35
Naas · Hurling For Cancer On August 24th Fillies Maiden · 1m
#18
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 9.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | Dundalk | BHA40 | 8th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Curragh | BHA40 | 14th | 9th | +4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Roscommon | BHA44 | 4th | 0th | +4 |
| 2025-04-12 | Curragh | BHA48 | 12th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-04-08 | Navan | BHA48 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-03-29 | Curragh | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2023 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 07/09/2024 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 22/10/2024 | 19th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/03/2025 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/04/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 12/04/2025 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 12/05/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 04/06/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 19/11/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |