16
Venosa
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 89
Naas · Hurling For Cancer On August 24th Fillies Maiden · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
300/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼5
Strength100%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: +5.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 6th | -3th | +8 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 15th | 6th | +8 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | -1th | +8 |
| 2025-09-13 | Leopardstown | 1 | 5th | -4th | +7 |
| 2025-08-21 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 18
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength2%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 78% | -0.17 |
| 10/05/2026 | 15th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 300/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |