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Aura Champagne

3yo Filly · 9-2

Nottingham · Weatherbys Digital Solutions Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 75y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

110,000 gns Dark Angel filly. Close third behind a now-useful sort at Newbury (7f) last September. Wasn't given hard time behind a couple of useful prospects on return there (1¼m) last month. Better to come over a trip more in keeping with her pedigree, and she could make it third time lucky.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS19/0922 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m2f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/072projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newbury23rd1st+2
2025-09-19Newbury23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0918/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20253rd17/255%67%+0.11
18/07/20263rd11/142%50%+0.08