Moonlit Surf
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 74
Nottingham · Weatherbys Digital Solutions Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 75y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-10-15 | Kempton | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |