Fern Clyde
2yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72
Nottingham · Weatherbys VAT Services Nursery Handicap · 6f 18y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Beverley | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Beverley | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |