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3

Leucothea

2yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 71

Nottingham · Weatherbys VAT Services Nursery Handicap · 6f 18y

#4

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Split an above-average pair on debut at Bath. Ran to similar level when second in relatively valuable Goodwood seller before finding Newbury's Super Sprint too competitive latest. Opening mark requires more, though yard 3-8 with nursery debutants last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0445 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f20y Std 1288/0553 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS7/0632 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 18th of 24 · OR 71 · 5f34y GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 71 par18/072OR 71projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newbury218th14th+3
2026-06-07Goodwood32nd0th+2
2026-05-08Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-04-27Bath42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/048/057/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength24%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09
08/05/20263rd7/491%60%-0.31
07/06/20262nd9/488%75%-0.13
18/07/202618th50/10%26%+0.26