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2yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 71

Nottingham · Weatherbys VAT Services Nursery Handicap · 6f 18y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Son of Sioux Nation who cost 85,000 gns. Gelded prior to pushing an odds-on favourite all the way in match race at Ayr (6f) on qualifying run. That form is hard to assess, but he still rates as one of the more likely winners on nursery debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0522 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS30/0524 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 2 · OR - · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS20/074projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Ayr42nd1st+1
2026-05-30Chester25th1st+3
2026-05-14York211th7th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0530/0520/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/202611th8/158%29%-0.29
30/05/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
20/07/20262nd9/488%0%-0.88