1
Hurt You Never
7yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 60
Nottingham · weatherbysshop.co.uk Handicap · 5f 8y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/04/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |