2
Invincible Crown
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59
Nottingham · weatherbysshop.co.uk Handicap · 5f 8y
#3
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottingham | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 08/12/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |