3
Little Jaybee
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 60
Nottingham · weatherbysshop.co.uk Handicap · 5f 8y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-06 | Thirsk | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Newbury | 1 | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 30/06/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 31/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 15/08/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 31/03/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |