4
Sergeant Mayer
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 56
Nottingham · weatherbysshop.co.uk Handicap · 5f 8y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Yarmouth | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 46% | -0.09 |
| 07/04/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |