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5

Star Marian

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 57

Nottingham · weatherbysshop.co.uk Handicap · 5f 8y

#2

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much improved form after 8 months off when making all in a Wolverhampton maiden in March. Beaten only one rival in 3 subsequent outings but there are reasons to be optimistic, dropped in grade, first-time blinkers applied and Rossa Ryan back on board. Worth chancing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chester 08/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0525 @ Catterick 30/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 30/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f21y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS30/0655 @ Wolverhampton 22/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 64 · 5f21y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 64 par3 @ Lingfield 12/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 5f6y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2025 · OR 62 par12/083OR 624 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 59 · 5f21y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 65 · 6f20y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 65 par21/045OR 655 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 63 · 5f21y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 60 · 5f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5/065OR 60projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-05Thirsk511th10th+1
2026-05-18Wolverhampton58th7th+1
2026-04-21Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2026-03-31Wolverhampton41st-1th+2
2025-08-12Lingfield35th1st+3
2025-07-22Wolverhampton55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0522/0721/045/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/05/20256th16/116%44%+0.29
30/05/20255th2/189%33%-0.56
30/06/20253rd15/261%75%+0.14
22/07/20255th28/10%0%0.00
12/08/20255th12/137%50%+0.13
31/03/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
21/04/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
18/05/20268th22/10%0%0.00
05/06/202611th28/10%0%0.00