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Dawn Of Liberation

7yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 70

Nottingham · Weatherbys BetTrends Handicap · 1m 2f 50y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner last summer who continues to edge back to form, settling better under a more patient ride when third of 7 at Beverley (1¼m, good to firm) 10 weeks ago. Freshened up since and he's one to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 11/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m2f Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 80 par11/084OR 804 @ Pontefract 17/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 81 · 1m2f5y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m1f207y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 80 par30/084OR 804 @ Redcar 16/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 1m2f1y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 79 par2 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m2f50y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 77 par2/102OR 774 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m1f104y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m2f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 73 par20/045OR 735 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 71 · 1m1f170y Gd 131 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 1m1f207y Goo 131 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 71 par27/055OR 71projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-27Beverley53rd3rd0
2026-05-08Ripon55th5th0
2026-04-20Redcar56th6th0
2026-03-30Wolverhampton410th9th+1
2025-10-02Nottingham27th3rd+3
2025-09-16Redcar46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0816/0920/0427/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 4
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength84%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/08/20253rd18/581%71%-0.10
17/08/20253rd2/189%0%-0.89
30/08/20257th28/10%25%+0.25
16/09/20256th16/116%17%+0.01
02/10/20257th22/10%40%+0.40
30/03/202610th28/10%18%+0.18
20/04/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
08/05/20265th9/276%64%-0.13
27/05/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07