1
Theme Park
6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 69
Nottingham · Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap · 1m 75y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 07/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 27/06/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 31% | +0.26 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |