Venetian Lion

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 65

Nottingham · Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap · 1m 75y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength34%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.5

Today: 5

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-27	Southwell	6	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-01	Wolverhampton	4	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-05-25	Redcar	4	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-04-30	Yarmouth	4	7th	6th	+1	4.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 6

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/04/2026	7th	11/1	42%	25%	-0.17
25/05/2026	9th	22/1	0%	11%	+0.11
01/06/2026	6th	18/1	5%	38%	+0.32
27/07/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	92%	+0.09