1
Dominant Stranger
10yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |