3
Xerces
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 78
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 29/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |