5
Brilliant Journey
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 07/05/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |