4
Pace
6yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 84
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 05/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |