2
Lucy Playa
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 72
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |