8
Mary Katherine
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 61
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-01-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-01-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2024 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 11/11/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 18/12/2024 | 5th | 4/6 | 96% | 33% | -0.63 |
| 09/01/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 27/01/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |