4
Nelida
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 78
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 21/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |