3
Shaunnasaprilfool
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 63
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |