Declaration Time
8yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-12-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 26/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |