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4

Golden Candy

9yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 84

Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength46%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Delaware Park 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 100 · 6f 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/08/2025 · OR 100 par7/08C7OR 100C6 @ Penn National 22/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 101 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 101 parC5 @ Delaware Park 14/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 101 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 101 par14/09C5OR 101C7 @ Laurel Park 24/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 95 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 95 parC7 @ Mountaineer 26/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 89 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 89 par26/04C7OR 89C0 @ Mountaineer 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f 123C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 88 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 88 par1/06C6OR 88C5 @ Mountaineer 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 88 · 5f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 88 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 13/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 87 par13/07C6OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Presque Isle Downs?7th5th+2
2026-06-28Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2026-06-01Presque Isle Downs?4th2nd+2
2026-05-04Mountaineer?6th6th0
2026-04-26Mountaineer?3rd2nd+1
2025-10-24Laurel Park?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0824/101/0613/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20253rd8/158%50%-0.08
22/08/20255th5/174%0%-0.74
14/09/20255th20/10%0%0.00
24/10/20258th10/147%13%-0.35
26/04/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19
04/05/20266th5/174%17%-0.57
01/06/20264th16/116%25%+0.09
28/06/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
13/07/20267th20/10%14%+0.14