9
Riding A Dream
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 84
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |