1
The Sinner Is You
10yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 86
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/09/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |