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5

Intimate

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 76

Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark08/09/2025 · OR 71 par8/09C6OR 71C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 59 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 6f 120 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 62 par20/10C6OR 62C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 61 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 61 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f Fm 118 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 64 par26/04C6OR 64C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 58 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 58 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 60 par1/06C9OR 60C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 65 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 1m70y Fas 120 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 72 par6/07C6OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?2nd6th−4
2026-06-01Presque Isle Downs?2nd6th−4
2026-05-25Presque Isle Downs?3rd7th−4
2026-04-26Tampa Bay Downs?9th10th−1
2026-04-10Tampa Bay Downs?10th14th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0910/041/066/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/20256th11/271%17%-0.54
01/10/20252nd8/158%83%+0.25
20/10/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
10/04/202610th33/10%0%0.00
26/04/20269th33/10%0%0.00
25/05/20263rd5/174%60%-0.14
01/06/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
17/06/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
06/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14