4
Sugar Magnolia
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |