1
Border Control
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Golden State Racing | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 19/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |