4
Don't Tell Kelly
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 88
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |