6
Jill Jitterbug
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 88
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |