IvyArcIvyArc
4

Stylet

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 93

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Satin And Lace Stakes · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 76 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 76 par6/11C9OR 76C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 83 · 7f 118 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 83 par15/02C8OR 83C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 6f 122 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 82 parC5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 85 par15/04C5OR 85C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 85 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 84 · 6f 123 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 84 par8/06C6OR 84C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 6f 125 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 83 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 88 · 1m70y Fas 123 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 88 par14/07C6OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-07-03Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-08Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-05-26Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-15Tampa Bay Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-22Tampa Bay Downs?2nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1122/038/0614/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/11/20254th1/195%63%-0.32
17/01/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
15/02/20262nd11/271%75%+0.04
22/03/20262nd5/696%80%-0.16
15/04/20262nd20/10%88%+0.88
26/05/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
08/06/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
03/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
14/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24